Chances for a New Delhi Tea Party
Just about a fortnight left from now for the moment of truth to be tested in a month long process of identifying the leader of the largest democracy in the world. The run up to the 16th elections has been nothing short of a thriller. Hundreds of debates, thousands of articles and millions of coffee table talks will be put to rest in couple of months time. Given all the drama and the publicity about the election itself, it will all boil down to the numbers. So purely numerically what are the chances of the parties. Here is a short but one-sided view. Because, in effect, there are only 2 parties that call the shots in India. Therefore, 40 percent chance for 1 means 60 percent for the other. This is of course the basic assumption of the model I derived. However, the presence of the 3rd front would only split the votes leading to a possible coalition with one of the other major parties. The breakdown of seats is as follows: S.No State/UT Seats ...
